ICF has published a new report examining rising electricity demand in the USA, available generation capacity and the investment required to maintain grid reliability and affordability. The report, *Electricity demand growth: How will the grid keep pace?*, finds that the USA power system currently has around 26 GW of excess generating capacity above minimum resource adequacy requirements, equivalent to roughly 3% of total capacity.
It notes that ERCOT and PJM, the country’s fastest-growing electricity markets, currently have no excess capacity available to reliably support additional demand growth.
Total electricity demand in the USA is projected to increase by 21% by 2030 and 39% by 2035. Peak demand is expected to rise by 14% by 2030 and 25% by 2035, driven largely by data centre expansion, industrial growth and electrification.
The report estimates around 445 GW of new generation capacity will be added between 2026 and 2030. This includes 177 GW of solar, 120 GW of battery storage, 77 GW of front-of-the-meter gas and 62 GW of onshore wind. However, due to differing capacity factors, only around 191 GW of this total is expected to be available during peak demand periods.
Annual additions are forecast to accelerate, reaching 68 GW in 2026, 76 GW in 2027 and around 100 GW per year through to 2030.
The analysis suggests the next phase of USA electricity demand growth will depend less on the scale of demand increases and more on how quickly generation, transmission and grid infrastructure can be delivered.
