McKinsey has published an updated edition of its analysis *Tracking the energy transition: where are we now?*, assessing progress across nine key decarbonisation technologies. The latest study builds on earlier research from 2023, which focused on Europe and the USA, and now includes China as well as battery energy storage systems and nuclear energy.
The analysis finds continued growth in clean energy deployment. Global renewable capacity increased by 585 GW, equivalent to a rise of about 15 percent. Global electric vehicle sales rose by around 25 percent to approximately 17 million units, while solar photovoltaic deployment continued to expand, supported by declining costs.
Despite this progress, the report identifies persistent gaps between announced projects and those reaching final investment decision across all regions. These gaps affect both established technologies such as solar photovoltaic and wind, and emerging options including green hydrogen and sustainable fuels. When operational capacity, projects at final investment decision and assets under construction are combined for China, Europe and the USA, the analysis indicates that current trajectories are insufficient to meet 2030 targets.
The shortfall remains even when planned capacity is included, reflecting a significant difference between project announcements and committed funding. The report notes that less than 15 percent of the low-emissions technologies required to meet Paris-aligned goals have been deployed to date, while global emissions increased by 9 percent between 2015 and 2024.
Regional and technology-specific findings show that China continues to expand its pipeline of low-carbon projects and has made substantial progress across several technologies. Solar photovoltaic remains the most advanced technology, with China having already exceeded its 2030 target and added around 300 GW of new capacity since 2023. In Europe and the USA, announced solar capacity is currently below 2030 requirements, although the analysis suggests that targets may still be achievable due to relatively short development timelines.
The report concludes that all three regions are likely to miss their 2030 offshore wind targets. Additional capacity requirements are estimated at about 89 GW in China, 81 GW in Europe and 24 GW in the USA. For battery energy storage systems, project pipelines are expanding but remain below levels needed to meet 2030 targets, with further capacity requirements of around 221 GW in Europe, 154 GW in the USA and 123 GW in China.
Overall, the study finds that while deployment is advancing, the pace and level of committed investment remain insufficient to meet near-term decarbonisation milestones. With less than five years remaining until 2030, the analysis highlights the need for accelerated project development and investment across multiple technologies.
