Onshore wind capacity in South America is expected to reach 83 GW by 2034, growing at an average annual rate of 6.5%, according to Wood Mackenzie. The top three markets—Brazil, Chile and Argentina—account for 84% of the region’s 39 GW outlook. While mature markets see continued growth through corporate power purchase agreements (PPAs), less developed countries remain reliant on government tenders. Grid constraints and rising curtailment remain key regional challenges.
In Brazil, wind additions will continue through the free market, though growth is expected to slow as earlier grid-subsidised renewables activity declines. Although long-term prospects exist due to recovering demand, short-term challenges include systemic imbalances and limited grid capacity. Tailored PPAs could support wind’s competitiveness against utility-scale solar.
In Chile, the transition to renewables has advanced rapidly, and the 2030 decarbonisation target is likely to be met early. However, wind development now faces grid bottlenecks due to overcapacity and delayed infrastructure. These pressures are expected to ease over the next decade with the rollout of storage and transmission upgrades.
In Argentina, steady wind growth continues despite economic instability. The MATER scheme supports development through corporate PPAs aimed at industrial demand. However, inflation and currency devaluation are slowing investment in essential grid infrastructure.
In Colombia, wind development is progressing slowly, with most near-term growth based on 2019 auction awards. The sector still faces delays due to grid limitations and regulatory challenges, particularly in La Guajira. Wind capacity is expected to increase after 2027 as these barriers are gradually addressed.
In Peru, onshore wind expansion has been hampered by political instability and a lack of recent tenders. Progress now relies on the free market, with bilateral PPAs offering some momentum. Wind power’s price stability continues to attract industrial offtakers, despite slow progress toward national renewable targets.
