DNV has quantified that standardising turbine designs and securing predictable project pipelines could reduce the average lifetime cost of electricity from North Sea offshore wind by up to 28% by 2050 in a high-volume scenario. DNV led the joint industry project (JIP), involving eight companies from across the European offshore wind supply chain, in response to rising project costs, uneven auction results and stop-start development pipelines. The study models the levelised cost of energy (LCoE) under three North Sea scenarios between 2025 and 2050. It assesses longer production runs for current turbine platforms as an additional way of reducing costs alongside turbine upscaling.
The scenarios show how market growth and production-run length could affect costs:
- Business as usual: Moderate growth and a short production run for the current turbine platform reduce LCoE by about 5% by 2035.
- Longer production runs: Under the same market growth, the reduction reaches about 14% by 2035 and 25% by 2050.
- Highest-volume scenario: Sustained deployment increases the reduction to about 19% by 2035 and 28% by 2050.
The model uses turbines of around 15 MW on monopile foundations as a reference platform. It does not identify 15 MW as the optimum turbine size or limit future turbine development.
The report calls on policymakers to turn deployment targets into visible project pipelines and consistent auction schedules. Developers and turbine manufacturers should align earlier on design envelopes and interfaces, while suppliers should invest in identified constraints before expanding capacity more broadly.
Most of the modelled cost reduction comes from lower capital expenditure, particularly turbine and project development costs. Installation and substructure costs provide further savings. Stable platforms could also improve reliability and energy output, while shorter project schedules could bring generation online sooner.
DNV found that existing European capacity can broadly meet near-term demand for turbines of around 15 MW. In the high-volume scenario, however, ports become a constraint and installation capacity approaches its limit, requiring expansion and selected upgrades. The immediate risk is underuse: irregular project flows weaken the case for investment and the industry's ability to respond when demand increases.
Stable designs and processes could also reduce waste, rework, transport and energy use. Bringing projects online sooner could provide further environmental benefits by displacing fossil fuel generation.
According to the study, capturing the full cost-saving potential would require long-term policy certainty through consistent auction schedules, predictable project pipelines and regulatory frameworks that support greater industrialisation and standardisation across the offshore wind supply chain.
The scenarios draw on DNV's Energy Transition Outlook 2025 and North Sea Forecast, project pipeline data and deployment ambitions set out in the Ostend and Hamburg declarations.
