DNV’s 10th Energy Transition Outlook identifies energy security, electrification and the integration of renewable energy as key factors shaping the global energy transition. While investment in renewables and the adoption of established low-carbon technologies continue to grow, the report warns that infrastructure constraints and the high costs of emerging technologies are slowing progress towards net-zero emissions.
Energy-importing countries are increasingly prioritising renewables, nuclear power and energy efficiency to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels, while energy-exporting countries continue to support domestic oil and gas production. Over the past five years, the share of non-fossil energy in the primary energy mix increased by 2.2 percentage points across China, India and Europe, compared with 0.7 percentage points across the Middle East, North America and Russia. Annual global investment in renewables more than doubled, from US$860 billion in 2021 to US$1.77 trillion in 2026.
DNV also assesses the potential long-term effects of the conflict in the Middle East on fossil fuel demand. If the conflict continues until 2030 and energy prices remain moderately elevated, oil and gas demand could fall by 4–6% during the conflict, with a permanent reduction of 2–5% relative to the main forecast over the remainder of the projection period. The Middle East’s share of global oil production is forecast to decline to around 40% by 2050, compared with 50% in DNV’s 2025 outlook projection.
Electricity is expected to account for 33% of global final energy demand by 2045, up from 21% today and 16% in 2005. Over the next 20 years, electricity demand is forecast to increase by an average of 62% in Europe, China and India, and by 47% in North America, the Middle East and Russia.
Space cooling, electric vehicle charging and data centres are expected to account for 22%, 21% and 18%, respectively, of additional electricity demand between now and 2040. Battery storage capacity has increased 14-fold over the past five years, but transmission infrastructure and demand flexibility are not expanding quickly enough to accommodate changing demand and growing renewable generation.
DNV identifies electricity market design, pricing, tariffs and infrastructure as priorities for integrating variable renewable energy. Gas-fired generation will continue to provide balancing capacity, although its share of global electricity generation is forecast to fall from 23% to 8% by 2050. Greater interconnection, storage and distributed generation can also improve system resilience, while increasing electrification makes cybersecurity and protection against disruptions more important.
Solar photovoltaic power and onshore wind are increasingly competitive with fossil fuel generation, while electric vehicles are becoming more competitive with internal combustion engine vehicles. DNV reports that global fossil fuel-fired power generation peaked in 2025 and has started to decline in absolute terms.
However, technologies needed to decarbonise sectors that are difficult to electrify face greater cost and policy challenges. Compared with its 2025 outlook, DNV has reduced its long-term forecasts to 2060 for hydrogen and carbon capture and storage by 29% and 15%, respectively.
Nuclear power is an exception to this cost-driven divide. Its share of electricity generation is expected to remain broadly stable as electrification increases, with nuclear capacity forecast to grow by 30% over the next decade and 170% by 2060. Small modular reactors are expected to become competitive with large-scale nuclear power around 2040 in most regions, with their share of nuclear generation increasing thereafter.
DNV forecasts that global energy- and process-related carbon dioxide emissions will decline by 44%, from 39 billion tonnes today to 22 billion tonnes in 2050. Electricity generation is expected to record a 60% reduction in emissions, followed by manufacturing at 45% and transport at 34%. Buildings and industrial process emissions are expected to decline more slowly.
Net-zero emissions are not forecast until the 2090s, and this projection remains highly uncertain. It depends partly on technologies such as direct air capture that have yet to be deployed at scale, as well as future changes in land use.
Based on current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate sensitivity estimates, DNV projects global warming of 2.3°C. The report warns that recent temperature records raise concerns about the potential for greater warming. Although limiting warming to 1.5°C is considered effectively unattainable, keeping it well below 2°C remains possible if countries strengthen their climate commitments.
