DNV has published the 10th edition of its Energy Transition Outlook, an independent forecast of the global energy system and developments across 10 world regions through to 2060. The report examines how energy security concerns are reshaping priorities and contributing to increasingly divergent energy transition pathways.
Key findings include:
- Energy security is driving diverging transition pathways. Energy-importing countries are seeking to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels and accelerate renewable energy deployment, while exporters are prioritising production.
- Global emissions are forecast to fall by 44% by 2050, leaving the world less than halfway towards net zero. This pathway would result in approximately 2.3°C of warming by the end of the century.
- Global electricity demand is expected to more than double over the next three decades. By 2060, 95% of electricity is forecast to come from non-fossil sources, compared with 44% today.
- Supply shocks are accelerating the long-term decline of oil. DNV says prolonged conflict in the Middle East and sustained high energy prices would increase demand destruction for both oil and gas.
- The focus is shifting from energy generation towards system integration. Expanded transmission, energy storage and demand flexibility will be needed to make greater use of renewable electricity while maintaining reliable supply.
- Aviation, shipping and heavy industry remain among the most difficult sectors to decarbonise. High costs and competitiveness concerns are slowing investment in technologies needed to reduce emissions in these sectors.
