The US wind sector recorded 8.2 GW of installations in 2025, a 49% increase year on year, and is expected to reach around 11 GW in 2026, according to the US Wind Energy Monitor from Wood Mackenzie.
The report forecasts 48 GW of new wind capacity through 2030, with 2026 expected to be the strongest installation year in five years. A project pipeline of 15.4 GW that has already passed key commercial stages provides near-term visibility, although policy uncertainty, cost pressures and permitting constraints continue to affect the market.
Onshore wind is expected to account for most activity, with 24 GW projected between 2026 and 2028. Around 64% of this pipeline is already at an advanced stage, including projects under construction. Regional deployment is becoming more distributed, moving beyond traditional wind regions.
The western USA is expected to account for around 64% of new connections in 2026, supported by projects such as SunZia Wind Project. The Midwest is forecast to peak in 2027, driven by activity in Illinois, Minnesota and Iowa, while Texas is expected to lead again in 2028.
Offshore wind deployment is progressing faster than previously expected, with around 6 GW forecast to be operational by 2027. Avangrid’s Vineyard Wind installed 624 MW in 2025 and reached mechanical completion in the first quarter of 2026. Revolution Wind and Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind have both achieved first power and continue through construction. Ørsted is progressing its North American portfolio, with Revolution Wind expected online in the second half of 2026 and Sunrise Wind brought forward to the second half of 2027.
Policy uncertainty continues to affect investment, particularly in offshore wind. Permitting processes involving the Federal Aviation Administration and Department of Defense are creating constraints for onshore projects. Around 60% of projects submitted for aviation clearance trigger defence review, contributing to a backlog of nearly 5,000 turbines awaiting final determination. Delays in approvals could reduce installations by around 7 GW through the end of the decade.
Cost pressures remain, with turbine prices about 22% higher than in early 2022. Onshore wind capital expenditure in the USA is expected to rise by around 5% through 2029, influenced by tariffs on materials and components, as well as permitting delays and uncertain project volumes. Recent guidance from the Internal Revenue Service following updated tax credit rules has reduced some short-term uncertainty.
Demand for new capacity is supported by growth in large electricity loads. Around 183 GW of capacity linked to construction or long-term supply agreements has been identified, with approximately 72% located in key markets such as ERCOT and PJM. Electricity demand is expected to grow by around 3% annually to 2030, compared with 0.7% in the previous decade, driven in part by increasing data centre demand.
