Amperon has introduced probabilistic short-term forecasting tools for solar and wind generation, aimed at improving visibility of output variability and supporting operational decision-making.
The new forecasts provide hourly and sub-hourly projections up to 15 days ahead, using percentile bands from P5 to P95 to reflect a range of possible generation outcomes. This approach moves beyond single-point forecasts to help quantify uncertainty linked to weather conditions.
The development comes as higher levels of solar and wind capacity increase the need for more accurate forecasting and risk management in power markets. Greater variability in generation is placing additional emphasis on planning across a wider range of potential scenarios.
The probabilistic forecasts are designed to support renewable energy operators, independent power producers, utilities and integrated energy companies in managing market exposure, planning supply and optimising portfolios.
